Market Commentary

March was a month of mixed signals and elevated policy-driven volatility. Bitcoin posted a -2.3% return, while Ethereum continued to lag, underperforming Bitcoin for a third consecutive month. Early market optimism followed Donald Trump’s announcement of a U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve, which named BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA as key assets. The news triggered a sharp rally over the weekend, but momentum faded quickly as traders questioned the policy’s clarity and impact.

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Investor sentiment was further rattled by renewed tariff tensions, contributing to the worst Q1 trading performance across markets in over two years. Hopes for a Fed rate cut were unmet in March, adding to risk-off pressures. Meanwhile, regulatory developments offered a more constructive backdrop: the SEC dropped lawsuits against Crypto.com, Kraken, and XRP, while CME launched SOL futures, and ETF filings for XRP, Avalanche, and other altcoins continued to gain traction.

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Market Outlook

As markets continue to digest the implications of U.S. tariff policies, risk assets may remain under pressure in the short term. However, historical patterns suggest that in times of macroeconomic uncertainty, gold often leads, with Bitcoin—frequently seen as its digital counterpart—tending to follow. The store-of-value narrative may regain traction, especially if inflation expectations persist and global liquidity tightens.

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On the regulatory front, the SEC’s proposed Stablecoin Act signals a shift toward clearer rules for issuance and use, potentially unlocking broader institutional adoption. This coincides with increased momentum from major players: Fidelity is preparing to launch a stablecoin, Trump’s World Liberty Financial initiative is expected to support digital dollar alternatives, and Circle’s planned IPO further validates stablecoins as an emerging asset class within traditional markets.

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For Ethereum, growing anticipation surrounds a potential ETH staking ETF, which could serve as a significant price catalyst. BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets recently pointed to such a product as a logical next step for ETH exposure, especially if staking rewards can be passed through to investors. Together, these developments suggest a more supportive framework for digital assets going into Q2, with the potential for renewed upside momentum.

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Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, legal, or investment advice. It is directed at our followers in Switzerland and may not represent the views of FiCAS. The author may hold assets mentioned in this article and assumes no obligation or responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

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