Market Commentary

May marked a decisive month for digital assets, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $100,000 level and setting a new all-time high at $111.6K, closing the month with an 11% gain. Ethereum outperformed, rising 40.8% to $2,526, its strongest monthly return since November 2024.

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Institutional momentum continued to build:

• Charles Schwab announced plans to offer spot crypto trading within 12 months.
• Morgan Stanley confirmed its crypto rollout via E*Trade.
• Goldman Sachs re-entered the digital asset space, targeting tokenized treasuries and expanding into crypto lending.

On the regulatory front:

• The GENIUS Act, a comprehensive U.S. stablecoin bill, is expected to clear the Senate.
• Stablecoins are now the third-largest holders of U.S. short-term securities.
• BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust recorded consecutive weeks of inflows, surpassing gold ETFs in cumulative demand.

Adoption trends accelerated:

• The state of Arizona established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fund.
• Texas expanded its state-level Bitcoin reserve efforts.
• Corporates like MicroStrategy, Trump Media, GameStop, and Strive collectively allocated over $5 billion into Bitcoin, reinforcing BTC’s role as a treasury reserve asset.

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Market Outlook

June has historically been soft for Bitcoin, with an average return of -0.35%. This trend may continue as markets await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on June 18. Consensus points to no rate cut, with the benchmark expected to hold at 4.50%, maintaining a cautious environment for risk assets.

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Key trends to watch:

• Stablecoin regulation and adoption will stay central, especially in the short-term securities market.
• A rise in corporate bond issuance is being mirrored by the growing trend of Bitcoin treasury allocations.

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Notably, Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges has dropped from over 3.1 million in 2020 to 1.2 million today, even as the number of trading venues has increased. This sustained decline may set the stage for a new supply shock in H2 2025, particularly if institutional demand continues its upward trajectory.

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Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, legal, or investment advice. It is directed at our followers in Switzerland and may not represent the views of FiCAS. The author may hold assets mentioned in this article and assumes no obligation or responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided.

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